Lost in the City

Don't expect a lot of comments on the election here... I'm way too depressed for that right now. I'll just say that I'm devastated to now have a President who will forcefully shred to pieces everything I believe in, everything I have always fought for, everything I think a society should be. The sad thing is: most of his electors don't even realize what they actually voted for yesterday. Well, good luck now.

Labor Day is on May 1st in France not in September. It also is a traditional day of marches all over the country. This year, Labor Day had a special flavour given the proximity of the presidential election's second round. This is why I didn't go marching. I preferred going to Segolene Royal's last Parisian meeting at Charlety Stadium. This was the biggest political meeting to date in the 2007 campaign, gathering 40,000 people in the stadium while 20,000 were outside, the gates having been closed. The atmosphere was unbelievable. Young people mostly, cheering for Segolene Royal. She wasn't alone on stage though: actors and singers were by her side, voicing their support to her campaign. They spoke, they sung, offering to all of us left-wing hopefuls a very nice and inspiring afternoon. It was important for me to be there, close to political friends, to bask in a left-wing atmosphere in those gloomy days.

The news came through my parents at 6:30, as I was in the metro, on my way to Jeanne's place. Two polls supposedly put Royal ahead of Sarkozy, and a third one put her right behind him. I was at Jeanne's a few minutes later and we could see on the "Le Temps" website (it's a French-Swiss newspaper) the first exit polls which gave Sarkozy ahead of Royal with respectively 29% and 26%. The final results are:
1. Sarkozy (31.18%)
2. Royal (25.87%)
3. Bayrou (18.57%)
4. Le Pen (10.44%)

Good side first: I am obviously glad to see that Royal made it to the second round. I am also extremely happy to see the high participation rate we had for this election: 83.78% is a score that would be unbelievable in the U.S. In France, we have to go back to 1965 to find such a high rate (84.7%). Last time around, in 2002, when we managed to have a second round between the right and the far-right, we had the lowest rate ever for a presidential election (71.60%)... which is still high compared to the U.S. situation, but still.

Bad side now: it doesn't look very good for the Left on the second round. First, because Sarkozy came about 5 poitns ahead of Royal yesterday. Second, because of the poor potential for vote transfer from eliminated candidates to Royal. Indeed, aside from Sarkozy and Royal, the two candidates who received significant percentages of the votes are Bayrou and Le Pen. Bayrou's electors will most probably split between Sarkozy and Royal on the second round, but 75% of Le Pen's electors should go to Sarkozy. Royal can only count on traces from the LCR (Revolutionary Communist League... hey, it's France we're talking about!), the Green Party and the Communist Party.

According to the first polls done yesterday right after the results, Sarkozy would win 54-46. I guess there is still a lot of leafleting to do... Let's not give up hope until May 6th though.

I'm not known to be overly optimistic... not that I'm pessimistic, sincerily... I'm just realistic most of the time. ;-) So why would I be optimistic about the outcome of our presidential election, tell me?

The campaign is drawing to a close, with the first round of the election taking place on Sunday (we always vote on Sundays in France). I have been as involved in the campaign as I could be, keeping myself informed of course, and leafleting in my neighborhood mornings, evenings and quite a few weekends. It is now pretty obvious that Sarkozy, the right-wing guy, will make it to the second round. At this point I'm not even sure the left wing will make it. Segolene Royal does have an advantage in the polls... but it's a small one, so who knows. We might end up with a second round opposing Sarkozy and Bayrou, meaning respectively: a socially-conservative-and-economically-liberal candidate and a moderate (but still...) right-wing candidate. That would be the second time in two elections that the left doesn't make it past the first round. Tough ...and telling as to the state of the nation. And I'm not even talking about the nightmare scenario that would have Sarkozy up against the far-right candidate Le Pen on round two. What happened to my country? I wonder.

Okay, more on that later. It's time to get some rest now.

La nuit a été longue à Washington. Une soirée d'anniversaire plus que prolongée, commencée au restau et finie à 2h30 du matin devant MSNBC et CNN. Raz-de-marrée démocrate à la Chambre. Le Sénat reste indécis, mais les indicateurs sont plutôt positifs... Mon souhait sera donc peut-être réalisé: une Chambre des représentants ET un Sénat démocrates. Incroyable si cela s'avère!!!
Il était pratiquement certain que la Chambre tournerait au bleu, mais l'ampleur du désastre pour les républicains est inattendue. On s'attendait à voir les démocrates gagner une quinzaine de sièges, ils en gagnent une trentaine. Pour l'heure, ils en totalisent 227 contre 194 pour les républicains.
Côté Sénat, la course est toujours indécise. Avec huit élections serrées, il était possible que le vent tourne là aussi. Peu probable, mais possible. Et pour une fois, je voulais y croire. L'esprit de l'anniversaire... Le fait est qu'il est très possible que le Sénat devienne effectivement démocrate. Pour le moment, sur le total de 100 sièges, 49 sont attribués aux républicains, 49 aux démocrates. Il reste deux élections indécises, mais dans les deux cas, les démocrates ont une légère avance. Il faut maintenant attendre que tous les bulletins soient validés, et voir si les candidats menés au score contestent le résultat. Alors nous sauront.

Dominick est passé me prendre peu avant 19h, et on est allés dîner au Pigale, un resto français de la 17e rue, à deux pas de chez Arnaud. C'était plutôt pratique étant donné qu'il pleuvait. Plutôt amusant, car le restau avait des allures de "sports bar" hier soir, à ceci près que les écrans géants ne montraient pas de matches de football ou hockey mais bien la soirée électorale. Notre serveur Mike avait un T-shirt pro-démocrate... un bon point pour lui. Bon d'accord... c'est Dupont Circle, ce n'est pas très étonnant dans un quartier pareil. Mais ça fait plaisir quand même!

On est partis du restau vers 21h ou 21h30 pour suivre le reste de la soirée électorale chez Arnaud, alternant entre MSNBC et CNN. Peu à peu, des très bonnes nouvelles sont arrivées. Tout d'abord, le gain démocrate à la Chambre est vite devenu évident. Ensuite, de bonnes surprises se sont produites: le Maryland voit un gouverneur ET un sénateur démocrates élus, alors que ces deux élections étaient très serrées. Autre bonne surprise: la proposition d'interdire l'avortement dans le Dakota du Sud a été rejetée par les électeurs. Voilà une vraie (mais excellente!) surprise.

Et pendant ce temps, je déballais mes cadeaux d'anniversaire. J'ai été gâtée: Dominick m'a offert un bouquin e photos sur Chicago, une boîte de chocolat et un superbe T-shirt de l'Université Michigan: bleu Marine, un gros "M" et "allez les bleus" écrit en travers... pas "Go Blue", vraiment "allez les bleus," en bon français. Ah, tout un symbole!